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If Nikki Haley is the first of many to run — Trump will win


By Elaine Kamarck

Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former Ambassador to the United Nations announced this week that she was running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. She is the second to announce, after former President Donald Trump, but she will not be the last. She is likely to be followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by former Vice President Mike Pence and by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Other, more obscure candidates may also follow given that, in recent years, running for president has become a career move towards a gig on Fox or CNN or a way to sell books or just a mammoth ego trip.

Many things will happen between now and the Republican convention in 2024 and most of them are, at this point in time, unknowable. But there is one thing we do know — if there are many candidates running for the Republican nomination and they all stay in the race — Trump will win.

Here’s why.

The Republican party rules governing how delegates are awarded to presidential candidates are determined state by state. Taken together they have a bias in favor of candidates who win by a small number of votes. In 2016, Donald Trump was able to win the Republican nomination because he was…

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